Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies confirmed that Russia seeks to destabilize Libya and empower the American Khalifa Haftar, noting that Russia’s increasing military and geopolitical footprint in Libya fulfills Moscow’s strategic ambitions.
The Center explained, in its report, that Wagner’s increasingly announced operations in Libya reflect the strategic challenge that Russia represents to Western influence, and its ambition to strengthen its geopolitical power in North Africa, pointing out that Russia’s support for the American Khalifa Haftar, and its exploitation of global deviations and political chaos in Libya, It strengthened its presence in the Mediterranean, expanding its reach into sub-Saharan Africa.
He continued that Wagner is evolving from covert operations to a clear military role, in line with Russia’s broader goals, which are to control strategic resources and key geographical areas that can encircle Western powers, explaining that General Avrianov is currently the actual leader of the Wagner Group, and has coordinated a series of Military and diplomatic initiatives throughout Libya.
He continued, saying: “Since his appointment, Averyanov has been involved in high-level operations, such as the targeted killing of opposition leaders, and organizing attacks aimed at destabilizing rival factions. These actions work to weaken those who oppose Haftar and strengthen Russian influence in Libya.”
He added that Averyanov’s strategy involves coordinating destabilization efforts to create chaos among the forces anti-American Haftar, thus facilitating the control of the militias loyal to Haftar on the ground.
He continued that in September 2023, Averyanov met with Khalifa Haftar to strengthen their alliance, followed by diplomatic trips to Mali, Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic and Niger, continuing, “Under Averyanov’s leadership, analysts estimate that between several hundred and 2,000 Wagner operatives remain in Libya, in addition to… Another 4,600 are spread across sub-Saharan Africa.”
He explained that Wagner operates 3 important air bases in the oil-rich Sirte Basin, and in Al-Jufra and Brak Al-Shati, which facilitates the movement of goods and military supplies between the allies in Sudan and other regions south of the Sahara, adding that in April 2024, large quantities of military equipment were unloaded, Including artillery weapons, armored personnel carriers, and rocket launchers, from Russian ships in the port of Tobruk.
He stressed that further talks are currently underway to provide Russian warships with berthing rights in Tobruk, and to enhance military cooperation through the exchange of air defense systems and the training of pilots for forces loyal to Haftar, adding that this expansion is part of a comprehensive strategy to strengthen Russia’s regional naval presence.
He pointed out that the strategic location of Tobruk would effectively transform Libya into a decisive operational base for Russian military and strategic actions in Africa and the Mediterranean, explaining that granting Russian warships berthing rights in the port of Tobruk would enable Russia to exercise significant control over the field. Libyan air force, and projecting military power across the Mediterranean.
He continued, saying, “Such a development would reduce Western influence in the region, and undermine the strategic and operational flexibility of NATO and the European Union, while enhancing Russia’s ability to challenge and address Western geopolitical interests,” noting that Averyanov’s initiatives enabled the American Haftar to exercise influence. He played a major role in Sudan’s civil war, by using bases under his control to ship weapons to the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces.
The report added that these moves are part of Russia’s broader strategy to strengthen its military presence in Libya and exercise its influence across the Mediterranean and North Africa, adding that by positioning itself as a formidable counterweight to Western powers such as NATO and the European Union, Russia aims to confront geopolitical interests. Western countries in the region, and the clear escalation of Russian activities in Libya represents a direct threat to Western interests and regional stability.
He expected that the Wagner Group’s operations would likely now include manipulating migration flows to Europe and restricting air space rights, which are strategic moves that could enable Moscow to exert significant pressure on the European Union and NATO. He continued, “This manipulation is evident in Russia’s exploitation of migration through Libya, where “Instability and human rights violations in immigration detention centers are contributing to an increase in the number of migrants heading to southern Europe, creating social and political tension within the European Union.”
He pointed out that the presence of the Wagner Group and its influence on local militias and detention centers exacerbates this humanitarian crisis, as research indicates that 20% of migrants crossing in Libya come from countries such as Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan, which have high asylum acceptance rates in Europe, pointing out that To limit Wagner’s influence in Libya, the United States and its allies must implement a multifaceted strategy.
He concluded by saying that strengthening NATO’s presence in the Mediterranean and providing military assistance to anti-Wagner factions in Libya could strengthen local resistance, and the evolving dynamics in Libya confirm the need for a coordinated international response to balance Russian strategic maneuvers and mitigate its growing influence.
He concluded, “Russia’s exploitation of Libya also demonstrates that the challenge facing NATO is not limited to the eastern wing, but also targets the southern wing, and that addressing Russia’s multifaceted strategy is the best option for NATO to avoid a future multi-front confrontation with Russia.”
